[AI] Computers to be as intelligent as humans by 2030

vishnu ramchandani vishnuhappy at yahoo.com
Mon Feb 18 03:46:20 EST 2008

Computers to be as intelligent as humans by 2030


Computer guru and futurologist Ray Kurzweil

A leading scientific “futurologist” envisions that the
pace at which scientific advancements are taking place
may lead to computers “matching human intellect
by the 2020s.”

American computer guru Ray Kurzweil reckons that there
will be 32 times more technical progress during the
next half century than there was in the entire
20th century.

While addressing the American Association for the
Advancement of Science (AAAS) in Boston, he said that
machines would rapidly overtake humans in their
intellectual abilities, and would soon be able to
solve some of the most intractable problems of the
21st century.

He revealed that his prediction was based on the
calculations that computer chips had been doubling in
power every two years for the past half-century.

“The rate is now doubling every decade, so the next
half century will see 32 times more technical progress
than the last half century. Computation,
biological technologies - for example, DNA
sequencing - knowledge of the human brain, and human
knowledge in general are all accelerating at an
pace, generally doubling price-performance, capacity
and bandwidth every year,” he said.

Kurzweil pointed out that computers had been based on
two-dimensional chips made from silicon to date, but 

scientists had developed techniques to create
three-dimensional chips with vastly improved

He said that 3-D chips could also be constructed from
biological molecules, which may enable them to be
miniaturised even more than metal-based computer

“Three-dimensional, molecular computing will provide
the hardware for human-level ‘strong artificial
intelligence’ by the 2020s. The more important
insights will be gained in part from the reverse
engineering of the human brain, a process well under
way. Already, two dozen regions of the human brain
have been modelled and simulated,” he said.

Kurzweil further said that computers were on their way
to creating a “post-human” world where a second,
intelligent entity would exist alongside people.

“Once machine intelligence matches the range and
subtlety of human intelligence, it will necessarily
soar past it 

because of the continuing acceleration of
information-based technologies, as well as the ability
of machines to instantly share their knowledge,” he

“We are understanding disease and ageing processes as
information processes, and are gaining the tools to
reprogramme them. Within two decades, we will
be in a position to stop and reverse the progression
of disease and ageing resulting in dramatic gains in
health and longevity,” he added.

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